10 May 2015

Dubai: Sell in May and Go Away

The relationship between price change and transactional volume in the market helps defining the best time to buy and sell a property. The months with the highest transactional volume along with the greatest price actions would be the best month to sell a property, while the optimal time to buy would be in diametrically opposite conditions where liquidity and price action points would be at a nadir.

A price analysis over the last 8 years reveals that the largest percentage change has historically been from March to October. Whereas, November to March have been the months with the lowest average monthly rises. A further in-depth analysis reveals that December is the optimal time to buy, where as September is the best time to sell within the apartment segment. On the other hand, January is the best month to buy, whereas July is the best month to sell in terms of villas.

A transactional analysis over the same time reveals the market is the lowest during the months of January to March and August to October. On the other hand, the highest months of liquidity in the market are from March to July. This trend is common amongst apartments and villas alike.

A bivariate analysis of transactional activity and price action suggest that the best month to buy a property is in October through February, while the optimum time to sell is in May through July. A granular analysis of community wise data may indeed unveil further investor patterns; however, investor behavior patterns thus far mimic buy and sell patterns observed in capital markets, both domestically and internationally.  

Download the full report: http://blog.reidin.com/PublicReports/when_to_buy.pdf